UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

#UFCVegas62 Grasso vs Araujo: Full Picks, Predictions, Early Bets & More: https://oddsmokermma.com/2022/10/13/ufc-vegas-62-full-picks-predictions-early-bets-more/

Anyone else notice that Jordan Wright and Kathryn Paprocki have the exact same face? 

mike has another suggestion
cub's rep should've gone CRAZY
when media started asking questions
that's okay, that trick was still entertaining
its fair game to mix in "weird" humor
otherwise the public's interest starts waning

Time to watch 13x15 minutes back to back of Araujo and Grasso. I've cleared my schedule, taken the day off from work, written my will, kissed my family goodbye just in case, here we go.

good luck soldier 

Martinez vs. Swanson
Cub Swanson, TKO
Fdgtd

first i'll pray the MMA gods have mercy
calm down coach, there's no need to fight 

but this troll is back for more tastes of real life
online words are words - should it matter if they're nice?
maybe i'm just communicating with China in disguise
the coworker controlling bots tried calling me piggy
even tho im 6'1 with a big D
and showed his parrots how to get jiggy
you've all been lucky to witness why they put Mike behind bars
bring out the stretcher and maybe
our next star can get "tinkerbell" tattoo'd on his arm

I think the easiest money on this card is the Taira fight by submission, +350 0dds on draft kings.

Also rah, I was curious about that parlay you posted about so I entered it in, it's only plus 500 for a 7 leg. Are you getting way better on your sports book? Doesn't seem worth it on draft kings aha

drugs?

Araujo, Viviane "Vivi"

#8 FFlW 10-3, 4-2 UFC

Fierce striker who uses good footwork to circle and go in and out.  Piercing jab from her hip and uses fakes well. Top end speed for class but fades. Does take shots when entering. Fast starter that slows midway into rounds. Damages opponents face and ends fights looking clean.

Former Pancrace strawweight champ

(2019) short notice Debut (bantamweight) vs #15 Bernardo (missed weight) at +240 used speed and successful counters. Easily a class ahead of opponent. Late in 2nd started getting hit a bit. Round 3 big overhand right ko win.

(2019) Flyweight debut vs #7 Alexis Davis at -185 outstruck opponent throughout first in and out of range. Movement slowed at end of first and continued into the 2nd. Likely lost 2nd round off her back. Came out hard in round 3 and stuffed takedown. Did significant damage to opponents face for 1st minute. Slowed again but did enough 29-28 Dec win. SF6 with good English post

(2019) #5 vs #2 eye (missed weight) at -190 good scoring and takedown in round 1. Opponent turned it up round 2 but she pulled a nice takedown. Gilbert burns in her corner. Still springy in 3rd round but eye was pulling away in a competitive fight 29-28 loss. Eye was coming off a bad title loss and was being counted out. Seems like opponent took advantage of her slowing down.

(2020) #8 vs #11 de la rosa at -200 after a close RD 1 found her footing and started to pull away with striking in 30-27 win.  Seemed to have a tough weight cut and was moving noticably slower than in the past. Didn't do normal fast-slow tendency due to aforementioned. Limped out of octagon in job well done but SF 5.5 (+$)

(2021) vs Roxy as fav.  All previous characteristics on display in Dec win where opponent had slight moments but never was a real threat.  Opened eyes to her cardio issues. The time is now to fix that.

(2021) vs #2 chookagian as dog. Full cage, in bout she should have shown in, was mostly nullified by opponents range and style. Seemed flat throughout and didn't get much going.

(2022) #8 vs #9 kgb lee - rough start saw her dropped in early feeling out and taking a head kick during springing up to go back down, then muscled down to her back as opponent kinda froze at that point and Vivi worked up into leading a fence press into a huge scoop and slam as opp is busted open .  now they are up and Vivi looks fully recovered as she’s walking fwd trading with opp - she ate a lot of strikes and head movement was not on the agenda here before she landed a rush TD to rack up control time without much of any effective ground n pound until horn . R2 she’s countered opponents wrestling attempts early into taking the back and worked to a side choke tho she couldn’t cinch it in and she led in position for the rest of round , skipping over any full mount gnp and trying the choke again . R3 the brief striking between them who had both slowed were ended by Vivi landing a couple key takedowns to control the round. Opp fought back late until horn and they were both spent . 29-28/27 dec win SF 6.2

the SF is show factor , a measuring unit i have developed that shows and projects momentum/effort

* Edited at 10.13.2022, 4:10 PM ET *

Grasso, Alexa

FFlW 13-3, 4-3 UFC (1 FOTN)

Tough in and out boxer with speed. Has grittiness to her that is hidden under sweet childlike demeanor.  Has the grit to finish strong or pull back from being behind. Good fit at strawweight where she was top 10 but is a game fighter at flyweight. Has been out sized/outgrappled at strawweight so there is concern facing grapplers at flyweight.  Is skilled and fiesty/active in grappling but gets outsized.  Volume striker that can do damage, Majority of fights end in decision.

Instagram meter: 335k, 378k, 467k

(2017) strawweight hometown missed weight vs #9 markos at -165.  Close fight where grasso had success boxing early but was taken down a few times.  Opponent looked noticably better than she does in current day.  goo5d scrambles and did damage with brief top position. Had most success on feet in final 30 seconds of fight and stuffed last ditch takedown to barely win a split decision.

(2018) strawweight #9 vs #12 suarez at +450.  Opponent uses size advantage to rush in and start grappling right away.  Grasso is fighting back hard to not get controlled but opponent is getting the better of her. Opponent takes full control and ends up taking back in a scramble. Hooks in gets rear naked under the chin. Grasso stays in it for an impressively long time looking to withstand but can't, had to tap.

Pulls out of next 2 fights via injury and adds new strength and conditioning coach. 

(2019) strawweight #13 Vs #15 karolina as slight dog, very active standing affair where she clearly won all 3 with in/out movement and circling. SF7

(2019) strawweight #9 hometown Vs #8 esparza at -140. took it to Carla as good as anyone has. Finally started stuffing takedown and lighting up opponent to win 3rd round but wasn't enough as she'd lost the first 2. Dec L FOTN

Moved to to Flyweight after weight cutting issues. 5.5 lbs over her on 2nd career miss, her fight was not allowed to take place. Would have been Biggest fight of her career on McGregor/Cowboy ppv vs gaudella. Not understanding weight issues as she wasn't a big strawweight.  Odd. 

(2020) Flyweight debut vs Kim at -300. typical solid in and out performance threw hard shots and grappled opponent who was holding back to win 30-27. Was moving well and landing combos on opponent known for fast, hard strikes. Excellent feet kept her mostly clean despite being at 6 inch reach and 2 inch height disadvantage. Kept her hands up to protect face well. Talks of "maybe she will go back to strawweight maybe she won't" by commentary.  Looked more muscular but will be at size disadvantage vs every flyweight. Did well in standing grapple, avoiding takedown and reversing fence press.   SF 6.1 needs to continue to add muscle.

(2021) vs returning from injury/layoff Barber as slight dog Dec w coasted round 3 to give opponent best round in safe 29-28 win SF 6.3  (+$)

(2022) #9 vs #7 wood - grasso has fired off early and the pressure has opponent down on her back as grasso did some light work on top for a bit and disengaged up to her feet .  opp actually had some striking success that grasso took right to the forehead but a scramble has grasso taking the back and from there she mowed opp down with the rnc finish SF 6.4


if u wanna see other fights recapped, check my profile folks , or keep an eye out

* Edited at 10.13.2022, 4:20 PM ET *

Finally someone asks me something. Like the name btw.

I agree, that was a weak throwaway parlay. And tbh rethinking Mana Martinez after watching tape.

Here's a better parlay (I'm chucking $100 on this)

Taira by submission (or inside the distance)
Henry
Britto
Dusko
Maximov/Jacoby over 1.5
P. Rodrigues
Royval (Hedging this leg with Askarov or Askarov by decision)

That's a much better one! Thanks my guy, you always keep these forums entertaining I love it.

Lol thank you. I try.

Btw question for you and all big brains in here (Not L-Andrew). I really like Grasso but I'm worried about the size difference against Vivi. Do you think it plays much here?

Maximov vs. Malkoun
Nick Maximov, DEC
Source dissagrees .

Rodriguez vs. Hughes
Piera Rodriguez, DEC
SA.

Jackson vs. Rodriguez
Pete Rodriguez, TKO, R1
🔒 SA

Vergara vs. Taira
Tatsuro Taira, SUB, R2
i’m

Grasso vs. Araujo
Alexa Grasso, DEC
No clue why Grasso is such a favorite here, Araujo is not a very good stylistic match up for her. She has great takedowns which could cause Grasso problems, and a hell of a right hand which could floor anybody at 125. Araujo leave herself open after every strike she throws however, and the head movement is non existent, which Grasso will take advantage of with her slick combos. This fight comes down to how much Grasso has been working on her td, since Araujo most likely has the ability to hold her down for 5 rounds. I see Grasso winning a decision here, I believe her td has progressed to a good level, and her combos will overwhelm Araujo.

Martinez vs. Swanson
Jonathan Martinez, DEC
Same thing as the Askarov fight tbh. Martinez is extremely skilled, but just has no finishing instinct. And if Cub's striking still looks as good as it did against Elkins (and he's not drained from the cut) it could lead to Martinez getting finished late. I do think that Martinez's leg kicks and jab will be too much for Cub at this stage of his career though, but I hope he can prove me wrong.

Askarov vs. Royval
Brandon Royval, SUB, R3
Askarov is an incredibly skillful fighter, who doesn't really have any glaring weaknesses. You should watch his fight vs Benavidez to see just how well he does everything in a technical sense. My main concern with him though is his lack of finishing ability (much similar to Jonathan Martinez). Royval creates huge offensive opportunities for himself in each of his fights, and while he leaves himself open to counters in the process, it does present a major risk for each of his opponents. The longer this fight drags on the higher the chance Royval has at finding the finish. This is another coinflip imo, and a great stylistic matchup (it should be the main event).

Todorović vs. Wright
Jordan Wright, TKO, R1
Dusko should be the favorite here due to his more well rounded skillset and grappling prowess, but with his bad chin and zero head movement, plus the explosiveness of Wright, I see a good chance of him getting finished early. This is a 50/50 in my book, and I'm sure it'll end in the first round, no matter who wins.

Cirkunov vs. Menifield
Alonzo Menifield, TKO, R2
Menifield is strong as hell, and I don't think Cirkunov's throws in the clinch are going to work on him that well. Misha has declined a lot in the past few years, look for Menifield to put him out to pasture with his superior power in R2

Martinez vs. Davis
Mana Martinez, TKO, R1
Davis got no chin.

Assunção vs. Henry
Victor Henry, TKO, R2
Henry is going to melt Assunção with pressure. Assunção has been washed for years now and I'm afraid this going to take a heavy toll on the long term health of his brain. Henry by KO R2, hopefully earlier.

Maximov vs. Malkoun
Jacob Malkoun, DEC
Lovely, a sloppy striking match between two grapplers who will cancel each other out. Maximov's takedowns are pretty bad, and while Malkoun's are better, I'm don't think he'll have much success with them. Haven't seen much of Malkoun's striking, but I'm assuming it's better than Maximov due to the guys he trains with.

Brito vs. Alexander
Joanderson Brito, SUB, R1
I know nothing about Alexander, but Brito is crazy explosive so I'm going with him.

Rodriguez vs. Hughes
Piera Rodriguez, DEC
Not much to say here other than the fact that Sam Hughes is painfully mediocre

Vergara vs. Taira
Tatsuro Taira, SUB, R2
Vergara is a extremely grindy, pressure fighter who I'm sure can give many people problems, we saw that in his last fight where he overwhelmed Kleydson Rodrigues. I think the submission and grappling threat from Taira will hinder Vergara's constant forward pressure, Taira has slick counters as well so Vergara will be forced to be tentative in his stand up. Taira wins but I'm not sure how.

Jackson vs. Rodriguez
Pete Rodriguez, TKO, R2
Jackson is horrendous, but his defense is a bit odd and I can see giving Rodriguez problems for a little bit, especially with the large height differential. Pete will eventually land though, and will crack Jackson's subpar chin and put him down. Not much in the way of offense for Jackson, nothing he throws really has much thought or power put behind it.

Stupid dum*** name.

But I like your breakdowns 👍