UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Nicolau vs. Perez
Matheus Nicolau, DEC
Thats a quick turnaround

Silva vs. Lipski
Karine Silva, SUB, R1
Finally a Womans fight that might not be boring

Pearce vs. Onama
David Onama, TKO, R2
Anyone whi can take Nate the Train to a mjority has a decent caliber.

Means vs. Medic
Uros Medic, TKO, R2
I like Means but Medic is good enough to catch him

Yahya vs. Henry
Victor Henry, DEC
Henry by 1000 kicks with no power.

Hubbard vs. Figlak
Austin Hubbard, DEC
Figlak not UFC Caliber, Hubbard not enough of a finisher to finish him

Hayisaer vs. Benítez
Maheshate Hayisaer, TKO, R1
KO power vs aging chin

Diniz vs. Lane
Jhonata Diniz, TKO, R1
I will save you guys some money. Never bet on Diniz. Don't get juked on that KB resume and his streak in R1, he's bad and if not this fight, he'll lose in the next. His KB & MMA carrers is just him fighting bums, on DWCS Diniz looked terrible but why he won that fight is because his opponent looked even worse. If there's some of you who bet based on looking at stats go watch his last fight and I promise you won't do it after. Lane is a bum & unimpressive himself, Diniz should beat him but he won't go far.

Karine Silva at plus money get it while you can

Going from 300 to this is rough

PFL puts on better cards than this

I think Nicolau is free money

I put a wager on Figlak. He went from -200 prefight odds vs Ziam to almost a pickem vs Hubbard. I think he can get it done with pressure and wrestling. He wont have to deal with travelling to France for his UFC debut and fight in front of a big crowd for this one. I think he can be a bit basic with his skillset, just pressing forward and boxing and grappling but he does those basics well and should be favored in this one.

I still think figlak is a solid prospect. He looked bad against ziam but I think that was more a “welcome to the ufc” moment more than him being a fraud. His wins over agy sardari and oban Elliott have aged well. Hubbard is also a jack of all trades, master of none. He’s decent everywhere but is kind of a weenie; Figlak should be able to bully him

Diniz vs. Lane
Jhonata Diniz, DEC
win

Hayisaer vs. Benítez
Maheshate Hayisaer, DEC
win

Lipski Silva is a very interesting fight. I made a lot of money on Lipski in 2023 because she was an underdog in every fight and people were very slow to realize she had levelled up her game. Looking at my record I had her at +321 vs Aldrich, +212 vs Gatto and +175 vs O'Neil.

This one I line quite close though, I think it's close on the feet though Lipski has better striking accuracy (a lot of that is Silva doing a lot of range checks in the form of punches not meant to hit but still) and Silva has the grappling and finishing advantage. The question is how she holds up if the fights goes longer. Also Lipski improved her defenses a lot so I don't think she will be a pushover, unless Silva is just that girl. Always tough to know with a fighter that finishes every win and typically in the 1st round just how good they are.
With how tough this fight is to call for me there's a lot of incentive to keep options open for livebetting as well. There might be interesting props though but those wont be released for a good while where I'm at.

Yahya vs Henry
Henry KO RD 3

I think Henry should win & win pretty dominantly at that but the price is kind of crazy here. Henry is a top 20-25 bw but he's not a young prospect and, we've seen him in this exact situation before. Not saying assuncao and yahya are anything similar, but I don't think Henry should be -650; unless he gets a round 1 ko there is no way he covers that price. Yahya is pretty washed but he is still a very tricky guy to deal with. He is the last of a dying breed, almost 100% bjj based. Yahya's longevity comes from his style, hes not a bjj nerd who just fishes for one submission, all he needs is a limb to imitate grappling. yahya is one of the few guys who can pull guard & then actually win moments of the fight. Henry is a good grappler himself & has pretty good tdd, so he should be fine, but I can definitely see a world where yahya gets him down. Yahya obviously better but Henry is a catch wrestler so he knows how to grapple. I'm not worried about him getting in any danger, but I could see yahya taking the back in a scramble and winning a round. On the feet I don't think it's very close. I will say, yahya's striking is weirdly effective, but it's still not very good. His chin and cardio have declined a lot with age as well. We've seen Henry struggles with rangy guys who use lots of counters but I think he will put hell on yahya. When Henry gets in his zone, he will throw an absurd amount of volume & is a nightmare to deal with if you can't get his respect. I think Henry keeps it standing and despite not being a power puncher, I think his volume and pace are going to wear on yahya, and he will finish him late. I feel confident about Henry but the price really does worry me here; I have no idea why he is almost -700. Hes a great fighter getting a favorable matchup but even washed yahya isn't some can.

Hubbard vs Figlak
Figlak DEC

I like figlak a lot here. I was very disappointed in his ufc debut, but looking back at it I don't think it's as bad as it looked. He did get outclassed, but he fought a solid veteran on short notice & in enemy territory. I really liked figlak in CW, he built a solid resume & was dog walking everyone. He is a pressure fighter; figlak walks you down & wants to get in the pocket and brawl. He doesn't have crazy power but he hits decently hard and thrives in a close range brawl. His wrestling is pretty solid as well. Nothing special but he knows how to mix it in and ride out some control. Hubbard on the other hand, is a jack of all trades, master of none. He can do a little bit of everything but doesn't excel anywhere. His kickboxing looks pretty improved, but hes still pretty hittable & his volume isn't amazing. He has no power either so it's hard to get any respect. Hubbard is a grappler but has shown many many times that his grappling is just mediocre. His bjj is bad and hes not going to do much but ride out control on the mat. Hubbard is also not the best athlete, which I think has hurt a lot of his performances. As I said earlier, his skillset is solid & hes well rounded but he is just average everywhere & doesn't possess any special qualities. Maybe Figlak is a fraud but I think this is a really good fight for him

Mayes vs Machado
Mayes DEC

At least ufc had the decency to bury this stinker in the prelims. Mayes reminds me a little bit of Spann (who we will see later) in that he has really good physical qualities but nonexistent fight iq. Mayes is the type of guy to trip on his own feet (actually done that before) and always lets his opponent into the fight. I don't know why he wastes money on coaches because he clearly has no intention of listening to them, he always does the wrong thing & never sticks to a gameplan (if his team even has any). Machado is also dog****; unlike Mayes, he doesn't have any good physical qualities at all. He is slightly more intelligent and significantly less ******** than Mayes, but doesn't have much athleticism at all. He is weird to deal with because he always puts volume out there, but 90% of what he throws has 0 impact and it's mostly just these lame, pitter-patter kicks and punches. He is a bjj black belt but was struggling to out grapple 45 year olds on regionals. He hasn't attempted a single td at ufc level so I doubt we see any of it.

Souza vs Mann
Souza DEC

price on Souza is crazy tbh. No chance I was going to look into this fight but both are pretty bad so idk why the line is particularly high; I remember from watching her tape in the past but Souza is pretty one dimensional. she has good boxing with some kicks but not much else. Mann should be an atom weight and isn't close to ufc level. Idrk if Souza is ufc level either but that win over Kristina Williams is better than anyone Mann has fought so I will go with Souza.

Llontop vs Green
Llontop DEC

really weird fight. Green going to 155 scares me because his chin is his defense & it's been over 4 years since he made the cut to 155. Green's style is pretty bad for winning fights but at 155 I think he should be more effective. He just gets in your face and won't **** off; green is always putting out volume and marching forward. He has good recovery but he can be dropped & doesn't defend himself well. He doesn't grapple very much but is okay there. He has annoying bjj to deal with because he will spam sub attempts, but he doesn't wrestle much. Llontop is strange, I liked him on dwcs but watching his fights back I honestly think he blows. When he lets his hands go he is a pretty solid striker, got lots of flashy combos and has some nice kicks in his arsenal. However, sometimes he doesn't let his hands go & whenever he hurts people, he immediately follows them to the ground & just controls. If he is able to drop green, I think green has the ability to stay safe & either sweep or get back to his feet. llontop's grappling looked poor in Peru so not expecting a ton here. I do think he is a better striker than green, but the pace and volume of green might throw him off. He can definitely knockdown green but Idk if he will be able to get him out of there. Not super confident but gotta go with the vet here

Petrovic vs Na
Petrovic SUB RD 3

weird one here. Na is an auto fade for me but Petrrovic looked so bad in her debut I had to look into this one. Petrovic has no striking at all, her volume is decent but she is very stiff & has that classic WMMA striking where she flails her arms around wildly. She got Carolina down & showed flashes of doing the right thing, only to then hesitate & let Carolina beat her to the position; im really not sure how to feel about her at the ufc level if she is making basic mistakes like this (especially against a **** grappler). Na is strange because despite the 0-3 record, she has some skills. The problem is she's a glass cannon; don't get finished early & wait for her to self-destruct. Na doesn't know how to pace herself & goes balls to the wall trying to get a finish. Her striking technique is decent & she can crack hard for a woman. However, she doesn't like to get hit & lacks any form of defense. I actually think she will ragdoll petrovic early on but as long as petrovic can stay alive she shouldn't have a ton of issues. If she can't get a finish I am worried she will lose a decision because I really think Na is more skilled. However, no chance am I picking the chinese McKinney

Maheshate vs Benitez 
Maheshate KO RD 2

Really fun fight to kick the card off (even if it's a very dull card). I like maheshate but I was pretty unimpressed watching his tape back. Hes got some good skills but has a lot of flaws. The biggest is his wrestling but that shouldn't matter much since Benitez rarely grapples. Even if he does, maheshate is decent enough at getting to his feet that he should be fine. The standup is interesting; maheshate is a big guy a very dynamic, but at the same time he throws mostly single shots (no combos because hes looking for the ko) and is pretty hittable himself. Benitez is a brawler but has declined massively. He is fighting for paychecks now and has been on the decline since 2020. He's more durable and has better cardio at 155 but he still looks pretty bad. He was getting touched in both of his lw fights and looked especially slow against miller; honestly that was an alarming performance from Benitez & now hes returning almost as quickly as miller did. I kind of feel like Benitez is taking this as one last paycheck. He can def still land on maheshate, but I don't think his chin is going to hold up when maheshate throws a big strike. If Benitez had less milage/more motivation I would consider him as a good dog, but I don't think he has that fire in him to beat maheshate

Nicolau vs Perez
Nicolau DEC

I actually kind of like this main event but didn't watch any tape because Nicolau is boring as ****. I think he is an elite flyweight but it's definitely a chore to watch his fights; he draws everyone into these boring point fights where he wins by barely doing more than his opponent. Nicolau hits pretty hard off of his counters, but he never really follows up and is content to point fight. He doesn't wrestle a ton but is a black belt & shown some very impressive grappling int he past. It was good to see Perez is in fact not washed despite the streak and cancellations, but I still don't think hes good enough to beat Nicolau. This will be very competitive, as every Nicolau fight is, but I think hes going to get the fight he wants and control for 25. Nicolau is very chinny though so if Perez is able to make this a dogfight, I think he will catch Nicolau lacking.

Spann vs Guskov
Spann KO RD 1

This is gonna be hilarious but I hate this matchmaking. Not only does it not make much sense at all, but this is actually winnable for guskov -- who I think is awful. People got pissed at me for fading him against pauga but honestly he didn't look great to me. Pauga was controlling the action & just froze up every time he got hit. Guskov hits very hard but I don't think hes really that good at all. He fights with his hands at his waist and his chin is suspect to me. Of course, Spann's isn't much better but I have seen him eat some pretty big shots before, where I have seen guskov out cold from weak shots. Spann annoys the **** out of me because he really is a freak athlete & is a giant, but much like Mayes, he has no gameplan whatsoever. Spann shows flashes of talent, but then immediately doubles back on it by doing something dumb. I absolutely love his jab and 1-2, the combination of his reach and power makes it an absolutely vicious weapon. However, he can never stick to this and ends up throwing a lot of ******, looping shots that don't come close to hitting. Spann also has a huge grappling edge but he rarely wrestles. He makes a lot of grappling mistakes as well but im pretty confident guskov is clueless on the mat. Despite the nonexistent iq of Spann, I think he wins this fight. Guskov is dangerous, but being dangerous doesnt equate to being a good fighter. As bad as he is, Spann has never lost to an unranked fighter

Silva vs Lipski
Silva SUB RD 2

very conflicted about this one. I have tried to fade both to no avail. Lipski has definitely improved a ton, but watching her fights back there's still a lot im not sure about. Her striking is very good, she is so fast and technical compared to normal women. She can also crack, she doesn't like to brawl but she can absolutely ko people if she wants. Most importantly, her grappling has improved tenfold. Not just her tdd, but even when it does go to the ground she has shown vastly improved awareness and bjj. That being said, there's still a lot I don't like. For one, while her striking is amazing, she does get hit more than I'd like. Not only that, but she doesn't like to get hit either. On tape, I noticed she is very susceptible to left/right hooks when she throws leg kicks (coincidentally, hooks are silva's best weapon). She's been able to take it but if silva connects, she's gonna get sat on her ass or even koed. Silva's striking has improved a ton from her regional fights but I'm still not a fan of it. She is kind of stiff on the feet and very low volume. Because she's always looking to end the fight, she only throws 1-2 shots at a time and honestly doesn't look super comfortable. However, she hits like a truck and all she needs is one shot. It's so tough cuz I want to say lipski will just outpoint her for 3, but Karine needs to land one shot and the fight will instantly be over. Silva's td entries are very well timed, but she has yet to face someone with good tdd. I imagine she can't get lipski down so this will be pretty ugly. If she is able to get this down, im curious to see if she can finish it. We haven't seen lipski on her back in a while but I imagine she is as clueless as ever + silva is a terror on the mat. However, I am curious if lipski will try and control silva on top, because silva will happily play guard. I can definitely see lipski staying safe & riding out control, but I can also see silva finding something off of her back. I really want to pick lipski because I think she will be the minute winner here, but she has to fight a perfect 15 minutes while silva needs one moment. I know if I pick lipski she will win the entire fight until getting finished somehow, so I will go with silva.

Diniz vs Lane
Diniz KO RD 1

I really badly want to fade Diniz but I really am not sure if this is the spot to do so. Diniz has a glory background but he doesn't look good at all. For a kickboxer I don't think his striking is really all that impressive. Sure, he hits hard and has decent technique but he is sloooooooow and very low volume. Diniz's footwork is also poor and he was getting touched up a lot of dwcs, which was concerning. His cardio also isn't tested at all so he may death gas after 1. That being said, I don't think Lane is the guy to do it here. Lane has a lot of good qualities for a HW, but the negatives greatly outweigh them. Lane is big and very athletic for a hw, he also hits really hard & most importantly, has good conditioning. However, he doesn't know how to control his weapons (always fouling someone), strikes with his chin in the air, and has a glass jaw from a lengthy football career + hes been sparked cold in all of his losses. Hes also pushing 37 which isn't optimal. I don't like Diniz at all but not sure if this is the spot to fade.

Pearce vs Onama
Pearce SUB RD 2

Very winnable fight for Pearce, he just needs to not be ********. That last fight against Brito was such a bad beat, he was starting to control Brito & find his groove, then one mental lapse and boom, the fights over. I think Brito > onama, but onama is just as dangerous as Brito so JSP will have to be wary. The striking is weird in this one, I favor onama since y'know he is a striker but hes there to be hit & honestly has a weird chin. He is super durable but he has had some really strange reactions to being hit, almost like how smith reacts to getting hit cleanly. JSP isn't exactly defense oriented, but I've never seen him hurt before whereas ive seen onama get hurt/stunned pretty much every fight. Again, I favor onama standing but I kind of feel like JSP can have his moments. JSP wins this fight by wrestling, all he has to do is not be an idiot like last fight. Onama doesn't have bjj like Brito, so he should be fine but you never know with Pearce. Pearce's wrestling is very good imo; he will chain wrestle all day & is mean af on top. He is constantly throwing gnp or trying to lock up some sub & given onama's tdd, I think he will get dog walked on the mat. Despite insane heart and durability, I think Pearce will find a sub; he attacks subs a lot more than I remembered, where Onama has actually been put in a lot of bad positions before. Cardio will be interesting as well, both guys usually have good cardio, but we have seen both guys punch themselves out before; shouldn't happen here but you never know. I feel pretty good about JSP here, but this is a very dangerous fight to come back to so idk

Means vs Medic 
Means DEC 

UFC is trying to give medic a win here but I think this is a tricky fight. Im going to be honest, I have never been high on medic. He definitely has done better than I expected but I don't think hes anything special. Really solid kickboxer but his overall mma game is kind of trash. He can't grapple at all, his cardio is not great, and he doesn't like to get hit a lot either. Medic's striking is much crisper, but means is a dog with tons of experience. He likes to make fights ugly & just go ham with his boxing. Despite the milage, means is still going pretty strong; he doesn't look out of place against anyone hes fought thus far, and his cardio & durability have held up nicely. I will say, his chin isn't as good as it used to be but he is not an easy guy to finish; usually when he gets finished he gets club n subbed after shooting for a takedown. If medic can hurt him, I am curious to see what happens; Medic cannot wrestle at all nor does he have bjj, so I don't think hes going to be able to get means out of there (unless he is severely compromised). Means will also mix in the wrestling regardless of if he is hurt or not, and I think that is how he wins this fight. If he stood the whole time, I think medic would out point him, but, means is good enough to make it competitive & win moments on the feet, then mix in takedowns to get medic thinking & win like that. Then again, this could be the fight where means chin finally gives out, but im not seeing it.

Yahya vs. Henry
Victor Henry, DEC
This imo seems like a step down for Henry. Yahya still has his Jiu Jitsu but other than that he’s just an older version of the guy he has been. His durability may have taken a hit but idk if that was Montel or Yahyas chin fading. For that reason I’ll go decision. Henry is very solid everywhere but his cardio and volume are what makes him dangerous. If he gets that going he’s very scary to fight. I think he will dominate and may find a finish late

Hubbard vs. Figlak
Michal Figlak, DEC
This is a mid off type of fight to me. Figlak isn’t a bum but I don’t think he’s awesome. He may have upside tho which is something I cannot say for Hubbard. I think Figlak will take a UD here because I don’t see Hubbard as Ufc level

Mayes vs. Machado
Don'Tale Mayes, DEC
Classic ufc heavyweight bum fight. Both are ass but I think Mayes being more athletic will help him here. Either way it does not pique my interest to say the least

Souza vs. Mann
Ketlen Souza, DEC
Pretty clear choice imo. Souzas grappling isn’t very good but I think it should be good enough to stop Marnic who has faulted against ufc level competition. I’m gonna say it’s an easy clean sweep

Petrović vs. Liang
Ivana Petrović, TKO, R2
Another bum fight just in the women’s division. Petrovic was hyped going in against Carolina and **** the bed hard. Despite this I still think she wins this one as Liang one ups here in being terrible. I’d figure she’d get cut but I guess they want a bounce back fight for Ivana. It should be entertaining tho like most Na Liang fights are

Hayisaer vs. Benítez
Maheshate Hayisaer, TKO, R3
This one is interesting. Benitez to me is in the twilight of his career. He keeps getting finished and has only beat bums over the past few years. Maheshate is a case of a guy who got rushed a little too quick. He had a great debut and the last 2 after were rough. However I still think he has the upside in some areas. He’s huge and his striking is solid. His wrestling needs worked on but his power should be plenty enough to get a knockout at some point in the fight

Pearce vs. Onama
Jonathan Pearce, DEC
if JSP loses he should just quit fighting

Mayes vs. Machado
Don'Tale Mayes, DEC
Mayes gotta bring his *****tomps back

Petrović vs. Liang
Ivana Petrović, DEC
Lets see if ARES is legit

Hayisaer vs. Benítez
Gabriel Benítez, DEC
I'm betting on Benitez higher tier experience on this one

I wouldn't put any money on Figlak. He looked horrible in his debut. I know Ziam is solid but he got outclassed in all phases. I'm gonna wait to see what he does with a step down in comp first. Hubbard isn't good, but at least he's got some wins in the UFC which is more than Figlak can say

* Edited at 04.15.2024, 7:01 PM ET *

this card will destroy people who don't watch tape just like the last apex card. if you bet mullens, valter, budka, I hope you learned not to trust the consensus.

* Edited at 04.15.2024, 8:00 PM ET *

Still not sold on Guskov, he is so defensively irresponsible and leaves himself completely out of position in exchanges, constantly leaves his stance

He didn't know what to do when he couldn't be the hammer but he can be the hammer like he's used to vs Hubbard.

Nicolau vs. Perez
Alex Perez, DEC
I like Perez making a fast turnaround. Nicolau I think can be a bit low output and likes to fight on the back foot quite a lot. Has the BJJ advantage but does he use it all the time or is he too content to try and wait for opportunities. Perez I can see landing leg kicks if Nicolau hangs back, making it more difficult for him to shoot and I can see Perez voluming his way to a decision

Spann vs. Guskov
Ryan Spann, TKO, R1
Likely to be two dudes swinging at each other. Both swing pretty hard so either guy could take the other out but I think Spann has the speed and athleticism advantage so I'll give him the nod to land first.